SCD talked to vendors and retailers about the trends and business developments that they expect will impact the Christmas industry in 2008 and beyond. The following is a summary of their insights.

1. Color.In all Christmas categories, the major style trend in 2008 is the industry's focus on color. Christmas vendors now talk about color distinctions and color directions with a new level of intensity and nuance, like fashionistas discussing the latest couture introductions. Among the "Christmas colors" being talked about for 2008: all shades of blue; purples and browns; champagne and platinum; and black and white — both individually and together or combined with traditional Christmas red, which is still very much in favor. No one hue is dominating the market, and designers have become more daring about color combinations. "The world is becoming more sophisticated. The color story just has to make sense," says Terry Fry, creative director, Jim Marvin Enterprises, Inc.

2. The Greening of Christmas.Environmentalism has become a deeper and more widespread cultural trend. American consumers are looking for products that tread lightly on Planet Earth. Suppliers' research-and-development departments have been working overtime to find new, more ecologically conscious ways of doing things. Candle manufacturers are searching for ways to reduce petroleum usage, holiday card suppliers are embracing recycled papers and acid-free ink, and companies such as The Paper Magic Group have begun using more biodegradable packaging materials. Eco-chic is also affecting product styles; some designers are incorporating recycled paper and glass in their new lines.

3. Naturalism.Nature-loving shoppers want more realistic Christmas greenery, and tree and foliage suppliers are meeting this demand with styles that mix PVC and PE, which has come down in price. Suppliers are also bringing more naturalistic components and mixes into their wreath and foliage designs. Rich Merhige, vice president, Regency International, Inc., notes that his new wreaths feature nature-inspired accents such as juniper, sedum berry and bristle pine.

4. A Formal Occasion.The use of metals, in gold and silver tones, lends a dressed-up look to ornaments, candles and other tabletop pieces this season. Glass, beads and frosted looks also point to a more formal approach to holiday décor.

5. Las Vegas.The country's gambling mecca is becoming increasingly important as a trade-show destination. Midwest is among the major gift companies to debut a showroom at World Market Center Las Vegas, which opened in 2005 and continues to build on its 57-acre campus in downtown Las Vegas. When completed in 2013, the Market Center is expected to be the world's largest, most comprehensive trade-show complex. Midwest's 11,000-square-foot showroom, located in Building C, will open in July 2008.

6. LEDs.Perhaps not as quickly as some had predicted, and more in some product segments than others, LEDs continue to make gains against incandescent lights in the Christmas-décor market. Improvements in LED technology and increasing energy costs suggest that LEDs' share of market volume will continue to grow. They received a very public endorsement in 2007 when, for the first time, LEDs were used to light the country’s most visited tree — the one at Rockefeller Center in New York City. Using LEDs to light the 84-foot-tall Norway Spruce reduced the display’s electricity consumption from 3,510 to 1,297 kilowatt hours per day, say the building’s owners.

7. Winter.Time-pressed homeowners appreciate décor pieces that are non-Christmas specific and can be used from late fall through January — which is one reason for the current popularity of non-traditional Christmas colors and more generic winter imagery such as bare trees, snowmen, snowflakes, ice skates, holly, deer and birds.

8. The China Factor.Because most Christmas decorations are made in China, importers keep a close eye on Chinese economic and political news. Suppliers say two factors — a shortage of factory workers in China and reductions in Chinese government subsidies of business — are likely to lead to price increases in all U.S. imports from China in 2008. Todd Weiner, director of the Sterling Forest division of Sterling, Inc., says that on his most recent trip to China in late 2007, the effects of the general labor shortage were very apparent. Some factories, he reports, had boosted wages 50 percent to attract workers. He predicts overall prices of imported Christmas products will increase from eight to 12 percent in 2008.

9. Safety First.Importers of all types of Chinesemade products are ramping up their safety standards and inspection procedures in the wake of Mattel's recall of millions of Chinese-produced toys that contained lead paint. Mike McGrath, president of rep firm McGrath Sales & Marketing, says that Christmas importers — both suppliers and major retailers — are re-evaluating their testing procedures, and that they are likely to place their 2008 orders earlier so as to have more time to examine the finished products.

10. Photographs.Thanks to digital photography and cell phones with cameras, Americans take lots of pictures of families and friends. They can display their photographs in holiday-themed frames and photo-frame ornaments, which have become popular gift items. Gloria Duchin, Inc.'s new "Always in our Hearts" photo-frame ornament offers a way to remember deceased loved ones at holiday time.

11. Bigger…Many suburban homes have large entranceways, high ceilings and sprawling family rooms, creating a continuing demand for oversized trees, ornaments and tree toppers and also for larger décor pieces that don’t get "lost" in these large spaces.

12. …and Smaller.Not everyone has a McMansion to decorate. Suppliers say there is also increased demand for décor products on a smaller scale to suit the needs of retirees, second- home owners and young adults in urban apartments.

13. The Opposite of Sticker Shock.Pam Danziger, president of Unity Marketing, reports that specialty retailers know they cannot compete with Wal-Mart on price and are wisely marketing to "luxury consumers" — higher-end shoppers in search of unique, high-quality products they will not find at mass marketers. Chris Farris, president, Farris Silk, Inc. states that one of his company's strongest-selling segments is its top-of-the-line Christmas textile collection, which includes tree skirts that retail for up to $700. Rick Contino, president of Seasons of Cannon Falls/Midwest, says that his company's customers tell him that Midwest's higher-priced lines are selling best, and they are requesting that Midwest increase its offerings in higher-price ranges.

14. Puppy Love. The American Pet Products Manufacturers Association reports that doting pet owners spend $40 billion annually on their animals. Americans' love of pets is reflected in this season's Christmas décor lines — many of which include products designed to appeal to pet owners. Dominic Pipitone, product development, Kurt S. Adler, Inc., relates that his company's large collection of holiday-themed pet gifts and décor is continually expanding. Dawn Rochelle Fields, director of marketing and creative services for Shavel Home Products, says that her company's new line of ornaments, which features licensed animal photographs by celebrated photographer Keith Kimberlin, was inspired by animal lovers within the Shavel company. "We loved Kimberlin's photos, and we thought they would look great on ornaments. We know people are very breed specific, and we tried to include as many breeds as possible," says Fields, who notes that in some of the ornaments, consumers can replace the Kimberlin photo with a photo of their own pet.

15. The Fall Holidays.Decoration-loving Americans don't want to wait until Christmastime to start decorating. Danziger of Unity Marketing reports increased sales of both Halloween and Thanksgiving décor. Christmas suppliers are debuting or extending fall-focused lines; and retailers — long accused of starting the Christmas season earlier and earlier — are now waiting until November to display all their Christmas SKUs in order to take full advantage of the exploding market for Halloween. Interestingly, the American Christmas Tree Journal, which covers the live-tree business, had a huge pumpkin on the cover of a recent issue. The headline: “Growing Your Fall Business.”

16. Religion.The demand for specifically religious- themed holiday product has grown in recent seasons. Images from the Christmas story — the Holy Family, Baby Jesus and the Wise Men — are seen more frequently on décor products such as ornaments and figurines. In addition, Marje Reed, director of product development for Christmas brands at Roman, Inc., reports increased sales of nativities; and Ann Koehler, merchandise manager, Bronner's CHRISTmas Wonderland, Frankenmuth, MI, notes that outdoor nativity scenes are a growing category at the store.

17. Economic Worries.Despite high oil prices, the declining dollar and the continuing war in Iraq, Christmas 2007 sales were starting strong as of press time, but prognosticator Gerald Celente, director of the Trends Institute and publisher of The Trends Journal, predicts that these problems will negatively impact consumer spending in 2008.

18. Words.Messages are no longer confined to Christmas cards. Greetings, inspirational messages and bits of holiday-themed levity adorn giftwrap, ornaments, tableware, figurines and even candles. Messages are sometimes as long as a biblical verse, sometimes as short as a single word — "Peace" and "Faith" being among the most frequently seen. Card designers are making words a more important component of their cards' cover imagery. Words of the season — "Friends," "Happiness," "Goodness," among others — form a wreath on a new card from The Paper Magic Group, and a graphically playful "ME2RY CHRISTMAS 2 U" fills the cover of one Trimorphos's new cards.

19. Popular Plastics.MasterCard reports that gift cards are becoming an increasingly popular Christmas gift option and that more consumers are using debit cards rather than credit cards to pay for holiday purchases. According to the company's most recent Holiday Shopping Insights Report, one third of consumers planned to spend most of their holiday shopping budget on gift cards — a 10 percent increase compared to the previous year's study. The report also notes that 34 percent of respondents planned to pay for holiday purchases with debit cards, as opposed to credit cards (29 percent) and cash (22 percent).

20. Niches and Choices.Some of the 2008 trends seem, at first glance, contradictory. Traditional holiday colors are popular, but so are blue and purple. There is a passion for naturalistic looks and, at the same time, more designs that seem suited to formal settings. Some vendors report strong sales of products with religious imagery such as crosses and nativity scenes, while others are focusing on winter themes such as snowflakes and deer and staying away from anything Christmas-specific. Perhaps, however, all these dichotomies can be explained by an overarching general trend: in an ever-more competitive retail environment, suppliers and retailers continue to step up their efforts to give consumers exactly what they want. Thus, there is more niche marketing to specific types of shoppers — the spiritually minded and the avowedly secular, for example — and there is a wider range of colors and styles and products available to tempt all possible varieties of hesitant shoppers to deck their holiday halls. //