Most observers agree that 2010 will be a year of strong sales for Christmas trees - at least compared to the two previous years. Advances in technology, the increasing popularity of polyethylene (PE) trees and LED lights, plus the pent-up demand from two seasons of slow buying habits should result in a more vibrant market.

 

Mark Boden, product manager for trees at Sterling, Inc. admits that pricing was flat last year and suspects it will continue to be so in 2010, perhaps even dropping a bit further. "A tree is an investment and people may not have much money to spend," he expresses. "It's the top end that suffers in a downturn."

 

Sales figures for 2010 will depend upon a number of factors, according to Dick Merhige, president of Regency International. "People who can afford it will pay for PE over PVC," he says, "and they'll pay for LED lights."

 

Already garnering buzz for 2010 is Barcana, Inc.'s iTree, which is "just what it sounds like," according to company owner Peter Barthelmess. The tree comes with lights, speaker, memory chip, electronics box and seven pre-loaded songs. More music can be downloaded from Music In Motion, a partner company that can synchronize the flickering or color-changing of lights on the tree in time to the music.

 

"Turn the music on and the clear lights will activate in waves; the colored light will dance to the music; a tree topper can be part of the act too," Barthelmess reports. The iTree will be available in high-end garden centers and specialty stores, with a suggested retail price of $600 to $800 for a 7.5-foot tree with 1,600 lights. Barcana also plans to offer a nine-foot option that will have upwards of about 3,000 lights.

 

"Music in Motion has hired experts with music degrees and technical knowledge to produce the music and coordinate it with the lights," Barthelmess explains. "You'll be able to download about 100 songs. Sometime in the future we'll offer flocked models and perhaps a palm tree with Jimmy Buffetttype music on it."

 

Brock Putney, marketing manager at GKI/Bethlehem Lighting, expects more demand for easier solutions - which means more predecoration. He also anticipates trends moving away from the traditional centerpiece tree and predicts smaller trees for entryways and porches will continue to be popular. "In color schemes, we'll see a shift back to traditional red and white ornaments, plus a movement to battery-operated garlands and wreaths instead of plug-ins," Putney says. "We'll be introducing some proprietary technology that's not being used anywhere else," Putney adds. "It'll make setup and lighting easier and less time-consuming."

 

At National Tree Co., creative director Jeff Bischoff also expects to sell more of the smaller, slimmer models, including a line of potted "entrance trees" that range from three to six feet high. He anticipates more sales of unlit trees, since they're lower-priced. "We're also going to do more with pre-decorated trees," he adds. "We've always had trees with a few holly berries and pine cones, but we've added more flowery models this year too."

 

ONE SINGULAR SCENT-SATION

Tamara Kullback, vice president of marketing at EnviroScent, says she's expanding her line of ScentSicles. These biodegradable sticks are saturated with oil-based fragrance and can hang on a tree or be inserted in floral arrangements. A pack of eight sticks, which retails for $8.95, will easily last for the duration of the season.

 

"The Douglas Fir scent is the most popular," she says, "and new for 2010 will be Noble Fir and Fraser Fir." According to Kullback, fifty million households are using artificial trees and this product overcomes the final objection many buyers have to them by offering that real tree aroma. "You can hide it in the tree so that nobody need know," Kullback states. "We'll also have apple spice and cranberry spice scents and we may introduce others."

 

NEEDLE POINTS

While some buyers seek technologically impressive options, others are clamoring for more traditional, naturalistic-looking products. Dura-Lit lighting and PE trees are the big trends at Vickerman Co., where president Pete Vickerman reports that he'll offer 24 fresh tree styles with more realistic looks and increased room for decorating. Vickerman notes the popularity of certain needle colors by certain areas. "It's still more green in the southwest and more blue-green in the northeast, because of what's seen in nature in those regions," he points out. Sterling, Inc. will be adding two new colors, champagne and lime green, to its Ashley and Paradise lines to invigorate sales.

 

"We'll have more 'in-and-out' designs, with greater potential trimming area because you can hang ornaments inside the tree, instead of just along the circumference, as with an A-frame tree," Vickerman explains.

 

Vickerman admits that every year, there is a fresh "crop" of various PE needle molds. While all Vickerman Co. trees have wire in all the needles' tips, Vickerman warns that some of these new examples have side tips with no wire, making it impossible to hang ornaments on them.

 

"The biggest overall trend is the growth of PE product at the expense of PVC and hard needles," Boden attests. "That growth was not as grand as it should have been in 2009, due to the economy."

 

"The price differential between PE and PVC is not that bad anymore," Kevin Fritz, sales manager with Santa's Own Christmas Trees, acknowledges. "You can now get PE trees for $199.99 - which is the magic price point for a lot of people. There'll also be more choice in needle type."

 

Boden remarks that while strings of LED lights are selling well, this has not carried over to trees as much as might have been anticipated. "We're seeing more requests for unlit trees," he notes. "Not necessarily because of cost, but because people like to hang their own lights.�

 

Fritz reveals that Santa's Own will introduce a "random twinkling" LED light set for 2010. These flasher bulbs will twinkle instead of switching on and off. "LED lights will continue to gain popularity," he claims. Fritz believes that the improved quality of LED products will account for an increase in sales. Consumers often were not happy with the 2009 versions of clear LEDs due to the blue cast they emitted. Another problem was inconsistency in brightness. "People wanted the LED lights, but they were too bright, almost overwhelming," Fritz admits. "In 2010 they'll be different. Manufacturers have managed to create a true warm white LED that will appeal to the masses."

 

Ultimately, consumers are still being careful and looking at cost. Pricing for products, however, is contingent on other circumstances. Reduced freight fees have allowed for a lowering of prices, but as the cost of oil rises, an upward price adjustment on trees in 2010 might be necessary.

 

Merhige predicts that buying in 2010 may return to normal levels due to pent-up demand for stock. "In 2008 a great number of retailers couldn't clear their shelves and still had inventory to sell in 2009 - so there could be pent-up demand this year," Merhige reports.

 

Vickerman is hopeful for 2010 sales, noting that retailers have been holding onto inventory for the past couple years and consumers will be ready to buy. "It might be a little too early to judge," he cautions, "but in general there's an uptick."